An Ex Ante Assessment of the Economic Impacts of EU Alcohol Policies
RAND Europe was asked to conduct an evidence-based ex ante impact assessment of a proposed Communication on alcohol policy, with a focus on economic impacts. The European Commission intends to create a comprehensive alcohol policy to combat the harmful effects of alcohol use in the European Union, especially with respect to the young. DG Health and Consumer Protection is designing a Communication on alcohol policy that will give shape to this comprehensive policy. The proposed policy aims to reduce the harmful impacts of alcohol use, while preserving its beneficial economic and social value added. As with all major policy and expenditure proposals, this Communication requires an evidence-based ex ante impact assessment.
Introduction
The European Commission aims to put in place a comprehensive alcohol policy to combat the
harmful effects of alcohol use in the European Union, especially with respect to the young. As
with all major policy and expenditure proposals, this Communication requires anevidence-based
ex ante impact assessment.
The purpose of an ex ante impact assessment is to consider what will happen in the future if different policy options are adopted.
This report has two specific objectives: (1) an assessment of the current macroeconomic impacts
of alcohol use and the likely future macroeconomic impacts of the proposed policy, and (2) an
assessment of the current economic contribution of the alcohol industry and of the likely impacts of the proposed policy on the industry.
We first examine the nature and extent of the problem posed by alcohol use in the European
Union.
Next, we develop a conceptual approach that discusses how alcohol use is linked to
macroeconomic development. This approach is then used to examine the future impacts of a
successful alcohol policy on a number of macroeconomic aspects. The results of this examination
are then applied to a comparison of the four policy options.
Our report concludes with a chapter on monitoring and evaluation, and finally draws conclusions and formulates recommendations.
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