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To support the free and open dissemination of research findings and information on alcoholism and alcohol-related problems. To encourage open access to peer-reviewed articles free for all to view.

For full versions of posted research articles readers are encouraged to email requests for "electronic reprints" (text file, PDF files, FAX copies) to the corresponding or lead author, who is highlighted in the posting.

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Sunday, November 1, 2009

A Simple Risk Scoring System for Prediction of Relapse after Inpatient Alcohol Treatment


Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist.

Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment.

The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment.

The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.

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