The extent to which problem drinkers transition into and out of problem drinking was examined using Markov modeling.
Although all possible patterns were observed, a latent Markov model with heterogeneous transitions and five patterns fit the data. The sampling frame and baseline alcohol severity related to pattern.
The data indicate that, although they do change over time, problem drinkers on the whole are more likely either to remain problem drinkers or to cease to be problem drinkers than they are to move into and out of problem-drinking status. Once they transition out of problem drinking, they are more likely to remain nonproblem drinkers.
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