Time Trends in Heavy Drinking Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Denmark Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research (OnlineEarly Articles) 7 Dec 2007
Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences on late life alcohol consumption.
By using age, period, and cohort modeling this study explores the time trends in heavy drinking.
The unadjusted probability of heavy drinking declines by age and increases by calendar year and year of birth for both men and women. However, the negative effect of age is attenuated for women when adjusted for birth cohort, indicating that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year.
Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s that possibly have affected the drinking behavior of the cohorts. Time trend analyses, such as this may serve as an excellent opportunity to extrapolate and forecast alcohol mortality and morbidity.
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