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Friday, April 23, 2010

Model-Based Appraisal of Alcohol Minimum Pricing and Off-Licensed Trade Discount Bans in Scotland Using The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (V 2):- An


In 2009, ScHARR developed an adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model for the population of Scotland. The findings of this modelling work "Model-based appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-licensed trade discount bans in Scotland - A Scottish adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2. Report to the Scottish Government. September 2009." was published on 28 September 2009 (Purshouse et al, 2009b).

Since this time, a series of more up to date datasets have become available.

  • New consumption data from the Scottish Health Survey ( SHeS) and Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey ( SALSUS) has become available for 2008 (the data in the previous model relates to 2003 for SHeS and 2006 for SALSUS).
  • The Scottish Government has also procured market research data on the 2008/09 price distribution of off-trade alcohol (in terms of ethanol content) in Scotland from The Nielsen Company.
  • New mortality data is available for 2008.
  • Police recorded crime statistics and Scottish Crime and Justice Survey ( SCJS) data are now available for 2008/09.

The requirement of this research project was to update the previous Scotland model with the new data to provide revised estimates of the effects of current proposals for minimum pricing and prohibition of off-trade discounting. The technical details of the methodology have not been changed. Therefore the methods section (Chapter 2) of the previously published report was not reproduced.

The set of policies analysed remains the same as in the original research:

1. What are the likely effects of introducing a minimum unit price on alcohol consumption, sales, health, crime and workplace harms in Scotland?

2. What are the likely effects of introducing a ban on price-based promotions in the off-licensed trade in Scotland?

3. What are the likely effects of introducing a minimum unit price simultaneously with a ban on price-based promotions in the off-licensed trade in Scotland?

Read Full Report (PDF)


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