Problem drinking during college is a well-known phenomenon. However, predictors of progression to problematic drinking, particularly among ethnic minorities such as Mexican Americans, have received limited research attention.
The current study compared the rates and predictors of problem drinking progression from the first to the second year of college among four groups: Mexican American men, Mexican American women, White European men, and White European women (N = 215). At baseline, participants were all first-year college students who scored as nonproblem drinkers on the Young Adult Alcohol Problems Screening Test (YAAPST). Participants were classified as progressors or stable nondrinkers/nonproblem drinkers based on YAAPST scores 12 months later. Hypothesized predictors of progression included behavioral undercontrol, negative emotionality, alcohol use expectancies, and cultural orientation (Mexican American sample only). Differences were anticipated between gender and ethnic groups in both progression rates and predictors of progression.
Twenty-nine percent of the sample progressed to problematic drinking; however, no differences emerged by gender or ethnicity. For the full sample, higher behavioral undercontrol and higher negative emotionality significantly predicted progression. Differences in predictors were not found across gender and ethnic subgroups.
The hypothesis that rates of progression to problem drinking would differ among the four gender and ethnic groups was not supported. Thus, although White European men are most often identified as at high risk for alcohol use problems, the present findings indicate that women and Mexican American students also should be targeted for prevention and/or intervention.
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